The Scene
It's mid-September at Miller Park and the Brewers are playing the Cardinals. The two teams are neck-and-neck for the division lead. It's the bottom of the ninth inning and the Brewers are down by one. Ryan Braun is standing on second after a single up the middle and a badly thrown ball on a poor decision by the second-baseman. Prince Fielder is standing at the plate.
The Question
What are Brewers fans hoping for right here?
The Fans
* Travis is a 22-year old Marquette student sitting in the rightfield bleachers - the Miller Lite Beerpen - wearing an unbuttoned, pinstriped Prince jersey, drinking his fifth Lite of the game and eating his third Italian sausage.
* Frank is a 47-year old second-shift factory worker whose been going to Brewers games off and on since Paul Molitor's rookie year. He celebrated on Wisconsin Avenue with the team after the 1982 World Series. He's sitting in the leftfield loge outfield seats (right in the sun!) and drinking a High Life.
* Jason is a 29-year old administrator who has only lived in Milwaukee for the last 5 or 6 years. He loves watching an exciting young team and is happy to get his 20-pack every year. He tends to read sabermetrically-inclined blogs, but still appreciates someone like Ichiro!. He's sitting in the upper deck, right behind home plate, drinking a Lakefront Riverwest Stein.
The post goes onto explain that the future of Prince Fielder on the Brewers will come down to the Travis' and the Jason's fighting it out - either holding onto Prince and hope to strike lightning either this season or 2011, or trading him for prospects sometime this year. The Brewers Bar plays out the scenario -
The Brewers are middling in 4th place or so in July, and are closer to last place than first place. Knowing that Prince Fielder is going to be looking for a record decision in arbitration next winter, do you consider moving him at the deadline, like the Rangers did with Mark Teixeira in 2007?
As much as I hate to say it, I think you not only have to consider it, but you have to pull the trigger.
The catch? These days, when teams are much more conscious about their prospects, it's much harder to get the kind of haul that Texas got for Teixeira. Hell, the Yankees lost out on Roy Halladay because they refused to part with Jesus Montero, an all-bat-no-D catcher that would be average at best at first base or DH. If the Yankees of all teams are refusing to part with prospects, it's going to be hard to get the equivilent of Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Neftali Feliz, and Elvis Andrus for Fielder.
The toughest part for the Brewers if they do decide to trade Fielder is knowing where to start. In theory, you're trading Fielder because you want something in return that's more certain than the pair of compensation picks you would get from letting him hit free agency. Contrary to what would be the public opinion, you're trading Prince Fielder so you can stay competitive in the short term -- if you try to compete by having him on your team and you let him walk, you'd still have to spend time waiting for those comp picks to develop (and there's a good chance they never will). Why not trade him while his value is still high, and get players that are closer to contributing at the Major League level?
I'd be very disappointed if the Brewers kept Prince Fielder long-term. Not that I don't enjoy watching him bat, but c'mon, the guy is an overweight, no glove 1st baseman - this shouldn't be that tough of a decision.
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