Friday, November 6, 2009

Ugh

And, like that, Hardy is traded to the Twins for Carlos Gomez. I don't like this at all. Manderfeld should be pretty excited about this upgrade for the Twins at SS. I could maybe understand this if Hardy always hit as poorly as he did this season, but this is an all-star SS two years ago, who hit 26 and 24 hrs in 2007 and 2008, respectively with lines like this -

2007 - .277/.323/.463
2008 - .283/.343/.478

Carlos Gomez could be Hardy's equivalent defensively, but he is an absolute zero at the plate with a career OBP under .300(!). He's young so he might get better, but he's most definitely worse than Mike Cameron.

Cameron - .250/.340/.448
Gomez - .246/.292/.346

Fangraphs -

Assuming some bounce back, Hardy should project as something like a +3 win player for 2010, making him a significant value at a salary that should come in around $5 million or so. He’s easily worth twice that, and if his offense returns, he could be worth $15 to $20 million to the Twins in each of the next two years.

To acquire Hardy, the Twins gave up Gomez, an outstanding defender in his own right. Milwaukee apparently wanted a premium defender to replace Mike Cameron in center field, but they’re taking a pretty big hit offensively in the swap. Gomez strikes out too often to make the slap hitting gig work, and his inability to bunt himself on base in 2009 caused his average to sink to unacceptable levels.

Even with his elite range in the outfield, Gomez is going to have to improve offensively in order to be worth a starting job. With infields taking away the bunt, he’s going to have to get himself on base in other ways, because it’s nearly impossible to justify starting an outfielder with a .286 career wOBA when you’re trying to make the playoffs.


Doug Melvin -

"J.J. has been a steady performer for the Brewers," Melvin said in a statement. "His professionalism and popularity with our fans and his teammates made this difficult, but he has been given the opportunity to go to a great organization to play and perform at the high level he is capable of playing."

Highly regarded prospect Alcides Escobar is expected to be the Brewers' starting shortstop next season.

Gomez hit .229 with three home runs and 28 RBIs in 2009. He played in 137 games, often as a defensive replacement.

The deal is potentially bad news for center fielder Mike Cameron in Milwaukee. Cameron, eligible to file for free agency, made $10 million this season. With Gomez in the picture, the Brewers may not be willing to match that going forward.

"Carlos brings to our club great speed, athleticism and energy at a position that we needed to fill," Melvin said. "His defense will serve as a key component to us improving our pitching."


I know Melvin had to say that Gomez's defense will improve the pitching, but Cameron was one of the better CF last year so I can't see how much of an improvement it could be. Let's pray that Kendall is gone next year because no winning team could survive with multiple black holes in it.

NBC Sports
-

Minnesota has long been rumored to have interest in Hardy and the fact that his demotion to Triple-A pushed free agency back another season no doubt appealed to the budget-conscious Twins. Gomez fell behind Denard Span and Delmon Young in the Twins' outfield pecking order, rarely playing down the stretch, and has made little progress offensively since coming over from the Mets in the Johan Santana trade.

Milwaukee picks up a speedy, Gold Glove-caliber center fielder with tons of physical tools who still has plenty of time to develop further offensively. Minnesota gets a relatively young shortstop who's under team control through 2011 and prior to struggling this season batted .277/.323/.463 with 26 homers in 2007 and .283/.343/.478 with 24 homers in 2008. Some trades just make sense and this is one of them.


Rob Neyer
-

And yes, Gomez does play fantastic defense, even better than Cameron. (I ranked Gomez fourth on my Fielding Bible ballot, and he might have been higher if he'd played more.)

But what a zero, offensively! Yes, he's just now turning 24. But however young, you'd like to see a bit of progress, right? Gomez's seasonal OBPs: .288, .296, .287. That looks like a guy who just doesn't get it, at all. Sure, he did much better while still just a baby in both Double- and Triple-A, but those seasons are starting to seem like a long time ago.

Still, the Brewers need a center fielder and Gomez is cheap (particularly compared to Cameron). Between the money they won't be spending on Cameron and the money they won't be spending on Hardy, the Brewers have gained a fair degree of payroll flexibility, which is the lifeblood of every financially challenged general manager.


Tom Haudricourt -

The Brewers will lose considerable pop in center with the exodus of Cameron. He hit 25 homers with 70 RBI in 2008 after signing a free-agent deal, and socked 24 homers with 70 RBI this year. Cameron also played Gold Glove-caliber defense in center but was strikeout prone, with 142 Ks in ’08 and 156 this year while compiling a .342 on-base percentage.

Cameron is a Class B free agent. To get a supplemental draft pick in exchange for him signing with another club, the Brewers would have to offer him salary arbitration. Because the signing club doesn’t forfeit a pick, he might sign before that deadline, however, giving the Brewers the draft pick.


Gomez is strikeout prone too, having 142 k's in 2008, and 72 last year with less playing time and putting up a lower OBP than in 2008.

Anyone got any other reactions so far? I'll see what Melvin does with the money saved before hating on this deal too much, but if it means that he's going after Joel Pineiro or some other buy-high veteran I'm gonna be upset.

No comments:

Post a Comment